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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy?

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To: Dauntless who wrote (5958)11/20/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Tokyo VD  Read Replies (1) of 7041
 
Dauntless,

I don't buy the revisionist history.

Here was your previous interpretation on Mexico:
"On royalties from Mexico...Royalty payments for one month = $167,170. On one hand, some of this went to filling the distribution channel. On the other hand, there has been very little time for the effects of SGP's marketing efforts to take effect. So the question is... at what level will the actual royalties settle??... Assume that's true and Zonagen still gets less than half of the just reported royalty revenue per month - say $80,000 per month in ongoing royalties - nearly $1 million per year to the bottom line - multiply by 20 and Mexico represents over $1.50/share - just from Mexico!!"

Now, Zonagen acknowledged that NO SALES took place in Mexico in the following 90-day period. Therefore, royalty payments for four months=$167,170. When will SGP reorder? Why wouldn't Zonagen disclose the fact that the sales in June were to SGP, not end users?

By the way, how about some proof that Z-Max's Mexican market share is still 35%. By my calculation, if royalties were 20% of end sales, then only $835,000 worth of end product was purchased by SGP for sale to pharmacies. By my calculation, PFE has sold more than $3 million in Mexico. That means the total market percentage for Z-Max would be $835k/3.85mm=22%.

And we haven't even begun to discuss the Peso devaluation effect on the cost per pill.

Tokyo
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