INDEX UPDATE
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The NEW HIGHs are still below 100, and the DOW got to only 150 points from its all-time highs.
When the DOW was running up above 9000 back in the spring, the NEW HIGHs were in the 250-350 range with spikes to 400.
It has already been 6 weeks since 7500, and we have been in the 9000 range for a few weeks already. That is plenty of time for the NEW HIGHs to get over 100. For comparison, lets go back to the strong correction during OCT 1997. Within 6 days after that pullback, the NEW HIGHs returned to the 150 - THAT WAS IN 6, REPEAT 6 DAYS. Its now been 6 weeks and we are darn close enough to the all-time highs.
This rally is definitely not the same as the one in the spring.
Can the market go higher - maybe, but the probability is that, at best, we see a DOUBLE TOP formation if the DOW gets back to the 9300-9400 range.
9100 was a significant resistance line, which was broken significantly, and the next at 9200 which it bounced off of so far intraday.
I have a question, and that is has a previous bear market ever formed a huge DOUBLE TOP, only to resume back into a bear market???? I believe the answer is no, but there could always be a first time.
I have no technical signs that the market will retest the lows at 7400 but I do have alot of technical signs that we are at/near a short and mid-term TOP (yes it could get to 9300-9400).
Seeya |
