Dauntless,
I'm willing to engage in a discussion, but stop with the crap about false statements because I challenge you to find one fact that I have presented as untrue. I know why you are long. I know why you look at the glass as half full. I'm playing the devil's advocate.
So, let's talk about your post. Your assumptions were based on one month's sales. You "conservatively" speculated that if sales were half the reported one month royalty figures, then your math yielded wildly bullish figures. You concluded that this value would be fantastic for such a small company. BUT THE BOTTOMLINE WAS THAT YOUR ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT SALES AND ROYALTIES WERE WRONG. ZERO SALES IN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS DEMONSTRATES THAT FACT.
To that end, you are right about royalties. No one knows what they are. But if you are suggesting that Zonagen is getting royalties lower than 20%, wouldn't that be a negative? If the royalties are higher than 20%, then end sales in my analysis were lower. Is that a positive?
I also challenge you to provide data that supports that your statement that Zonagen has 35% market share (and using the lies that the analyst at Volpe put in print isn't valid data).
And why do pretend like the "buy 1, get 3 free" promotion was something you "heard" about when it was REPORTED AS FACT AND DENIED BY ZONAGEN! TO THIS DAY, ZONAGEN HAS LIED ABOUT ITS KNOWLEDGE OF THE GIVEAWAY IN MEXICO (WHICH CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT) AND ITS KNOWLEDGE OF THE SELLING PRICE IN MEXICO. Don't be surprised that I'm skeptical when management has a history of lying or misleading.
You also suggest that speculating on the perception of performance ("How do product sales compare with expectations?), rather than the performance itself, is a better way to analyze a company. I disagree. Why don't you try asking YOUR FRIENDS at Zonagen how sales in Mexico are going? They know because they have not received any reorders from SGP. They also know because they buy the Mexican sales data from the monitoring agencies and can see that Z-Max sales are not 35% of the market.
I do give the Zonagen management credit for keeping their mouths shut after they signed the SGP deal. Before that, they had a problem with knowlingly or unknowingly giving bad guidance. But to that end, what's the difference between Zonagen promoting its prospects or physicians like Dr. Steven Lamm, Dr. Irwin Goldstein, and Dr. Stephen Auerbach, who are on the payroll. To that end, whatever happened to the promised peer review publication of the Phase III trial data? Oh, I forgot, tick, tock, tick, tock, tick, tock, tick, tock, tick.
Tokyo |
