Finally I can get in to SI again - just barely. As for your cmb puts, you made your 1000% return going with the trend, not against it. In Sept/early Oct all banks and global financial institutions were pounded, rightly or wrongly, and you hopped aboard and rode the trend. The trend on MU has been up, and those who rode the trend have profited handsomely as well. A call purchased when MU was sub-30 would have given you another 1000% return. Now me, I was writing options. The Nov. 45's I wrote just expired worthless, so I keep the premium.
Now that November options expiration is over, we should establish next week whether MU is headed back down, or up. Be aware that even if there is a little dip early next week, a post-thanksgiving rally is the norm. Considering the strength of the SOX, I'd hate to stand in front of a train right now, though. The semis may well come back down, but my guess for a time frame is sometime after the first of the year, say March-April. In the meantime, enjoy, or stay out of the way.
Carl |