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Gold/Mining/Energy : Lundin Oil (LOILY, LOILB Sweden)

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To: Tomas who wrote (846)11/20/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: Aggie  Read Replies (2) of 2742
 
Tomas, hello

6 wells and no gushers. Gee, let's give up and go back to roofing.

But first, the numbers. 140 million barrels, minimum required to ante up? What?

Figure 3000 m average well depth, at $150K/day average operating spread cost for a floater in remote areas. Average cost/well: $4.5 million. I've operated in extremely remote areas for this cost, it's not unreasonable. And 30 days for a 3000 m well is also not unreasonable. Add the same amount again for casing and wellheads and rig mob/demob, you get an average well cost of $9.0 million. That's reasonable.

$20-25 million/well? What for? The steep part of the learning curve should be behind these guys by now.

No,no. Give me a field of 40 million STB, some subsea completions, and a FPSO and there will be a profit.

If they've found oil and gas shows, source rock, and favorable reservoir rock, then they'll be back. Now it's time for another round of 3-D seismic, 1 - 2 years of processing and interpretation, a few non-chalant additional acreage acquisitions, and (with oil back around $18/bbl) aggressive drilling by 2001.

I'll bet you a cold beer the parties involved are keeping rueful smiles plastered firmly in place while kicking each other under the table.

Best of Luck

Aggie
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