Pete,
Yeah, the NEW HIGHs are still below 100, but improved slightly. Far from confirming 9100 range in relative to previous performance in the spring. Hey, the DOW could still move up to 9300-9400 and the BULLs will be super happy with the bullish sentiment approaching 60%.
I will be going short Mon/Tue/Wed on individual stocks, depending how the market reacts, looking for a 5%+ pullback. Frankly, I hope the DOW does move up to the 9300-9400 range since it will make my sell signals clearer.
My only concern is if the NEW HIGHs exceed 100 significantly and stays there.
I feel the key to whether we are returning to a bull market is not now but how the market performs after a pullback. For the past 3 years, could be more, we have had strong rallys beginning in DEC/JAN and lasting into early spring (MAR/APR). If there is no rally then taking us to higher highs, then I believe the BULL market will be over.
Right now I am playing it as a trading range, going both ways. The point is to make money, not to see whos right and to rub their faces in it as I am seeing on many threads now and personal contacts.
I have also notices on many SI threads where the BULLs are coming out now and rubbing it in the face of bears since the market is so high, but where were they when the market was declining. The same for the BEARs when the market was dropping in their favor. A spineless bunch.
Fortunately, this thread has little or non of that.
For the readers of this thread, please understand that this is an option thread and should target short-term moves in light of time value erosion. I have received PMs/emails disagreeing with me on my long term projection, but what is funny is that I have not given a long term projection other than a trading range, only short-to-mid-term (1-30 days). Im just range trading now(1-10 day trades), which is working. Since I mainly play options, I do not hold onto positions for a long time and target 50% gains. Unfortunately, at times I do not gain from the full run, but make it up going in both directions as I try to get as many short-term ripples as possible.
Seeya |
