Gil:
Basically it was the same old story. Michael Metz the famous bear
kept saying stocks are overvalued because of their high P/Es and
low or none divident yeild and that interests rates will soon sky rocket,
and that inflation is going to go through the roof soon, etc. Basically
he said that the sky is falling! I remember him saying exactly a week
before the presidential election that the stock will dive by 20%
immediately right after the election! And he said that with such
confidence and erogance that even I who consider myself an optimist
kind of got scared and concerned! Anyway, we all know that
right after the election the stock market went actually up.
Joe Batapaglio on the other hand was saying what bulls have been
saying that there is no inflation, interest rates will be lower by the
year end and corporate earnings will held up pretty good.
Two contradictory opinions. As for myself I am in Joe Batepaglio's
camp. EG and Michael Metz alike are losing credebility and money
as seconds go by. Even if there is a correction in the stock market
which even I am sure may take place during the next 12 months
or so, there is no way these 2 jokers can take the credit for predicting
it! Even with the correction they could have made so much money in
between that they would have been ahead BIG TIME! The correction
at mostWILL NOT be any more than 5% from what it is today anyway.
The social psychology and economic model has changed drastically
in the 1990's. It is no longer a local economy, and people no longer
just spend and spend. The 1980's and early 90's corporate
America's restructuring taught Americans a great lesson and that
is: not to take things for granted! People are now more into savings
and investing than ever before in the 20th century. And with US
corporations as the lead providers of products to the world the
earnings will go forward BIG TIME. The consuming countires
(Asia, Africa, Europe) are too dependent on US corporations so I
dont see how can Michael Metz (and EG, Jimmy Rogers and alike)
justify the decline in the earnings of US companies while being so
much upbeat on foreign markets (especially Asia, Europe and
Africa)!! Unless I am missing something, to me that is contradiction in
terms.
Regards,
- Addi Jamshidi |
