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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: FJB who wrote (20240)11/21/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
Bob, I believe the old forecasts were for 2000 lasers needed in a year once 300mm operation gets going full steam. With chip companies being forced to invest their money a little more wisely, it seems like the forecast for the number of fabs that will be built (or upgraded) are coming down, particularly since people are realizing that their is a huge yield improvement at smaller line widths. Can you gave a updated WAG as to the number of lasers needed per year when the industry totally recovers?

BTW, my own uneducated, biased guess is even if the number comes down by a third it won't be so detrimental to Cymer. All of the analysts were figuring that they would lose 20-33% market share, and I doubt that they will. Consequently, Cymer's number should end up as good as originally projected.

Jay
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