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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: yard_man who wrote (37129)11/21/1998 12:44:00 PM
From: Mike M2  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
Tippet, many indicators that were reliable in the past have not been reliable -this happens in a bubble especially when the bubble has the blessing on the government and a mkt where some observers suspect the mkt gets helped via the futures by the fed or a designated fed operative when it start to get weak. In the past the normal business cycle was that cpi,ppi inflation would rise and the Fed would choke off the overheated expansion and lower when the economy was weak so the steps and stumble rule was more reliable. The legendary technician ( sorry MB)-g- Edson Gould invented the rule. BTW I have an e-wave book where Gould supposedly made some remarkable forecasts using Elliot Waves but I was a kid then . The current situation resembles the US in the 20's where many economists marvel at the strong economy with no inflation-totally ignoring the inflation of financial assets. The scary part of the comparison is the current excesses are worse than the 20's and the economy is not as sound in many respects. Mike
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