Kosovo Monitors Expect Explosion
Saturday, 21 November 1998
P R I S T I N A , Y U G O S L A V I A (AP)
NATO'S TOP commander in Europe believes Kosovo has only a two- to
four-month window of relative calm before another explosion. That
window is slowly sliding shut even as diplomats negotiate and technicians
struggle to organize a huge team of peace "verifiers."
U.S. negotiator Richard Holbrooke struck a deal with Yugoslav President
Slobodan Milosevic on Oct. 12 to end the violence in Kosovo, the poor
southern province of Serbia. Part of the deal included sending 2,000
unarmed monitors to keep watch on the cease-fire between Serbs and
rebel ethnic Albanians.
An enormous amount of work has been done in the six weeks since then
by the 54-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe,
which is in charge of the Kosovo Verification Mission. But so far not a
single OSCE verifier is patrolling in the province of 2 million people.
The only monitors on the road are from the Kosovo Diplomatic Observer
Mission, which began in July and now has more than 200 observers from
the United States, European Union, Russia and Britain. It eventually will be
absorbed by the OSCE operation.
For now, the OSCE's mission doesn't exist beyond a growing
headquarters operation.
"As soon as possible, as soon as we think we are robust enough, I will say
OK, it's now a totally OSCE show," said William Walker, the American
running the Kosovo Verification Mission.
The biggest monitoring job the OSCE has ever done until now was in
Croatia. That involved 250 people and took six months to get up to 75
percent strength, Walker said.
The OSCE doesn't know what the final number will be for the Kosovo
mission. Sometimes Walker mentions 1,500 monitors, sometimes 2,000.
"I would guess by the first of the year, mid-January, we will have a serious
percentage of those people in - as fast as humanly and bureaucratically
possible. And that 'bureaucratically' is the tricky part," he said.
By mid-January, however, the window's opening will be a lot smaller.
Christopher Hill, the American ambassador to neighboring Macedonia, is
Washington's point man on the diplomatic front, trying to work out a
settlement acceptable to both Serbs and ethnic Albanians. His latest draft
has drawn serious reservations from the Albanians and has been rejected
by the Serbs.
Gen. Wesley Clark, NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe,
whose readied force of planes and troops persuaded Milosevic to deal last
month, says everyone must move quickly to avert a resumption of fighting
in the spring.
"Despite all our best efforts ... we probably have only a two- to
four-month window of relative peace," Clark said. "We must use this
respite to achieve a just and durable political settlement.
"The Albanian Kosovars are strengthening their force, they're organizing,
they're achieving greater discipline, and they're preparing for what could
happen if the political solution doesn't appear. No doubt the other side, the
Serbs, are doing the same thing."
Sporadic shootings and killings continue in the countryside of Kosovo,
where ethnic Albanians make up 90 percent of the population. But for the
moment, both sides are generally adhering to the cease-fire.
The first task of the OSCE verifiers has been to take care of themselves. A
Norwegian military team provided $21 million and 70 experts to set up
headquarters in Pristina, the provincial capital, and in six regional centers.
The OSCE will open a training center Monday in the mountain village of
Brezovica in southern Kosovo. Three-day courses will be used to make
sure a wide variety of monitors from 30 to 35 countries, ranging from
professional soldiers to human rights workers, all start on the same footing.
What they will face are Albanian rebels scattered around the province -
rearming, reorganizing, demanding independence from Serbia and ready to
go to war again if they don't get their way - and Serbian army and police
forces prepared to put down any uprising just as violently as they did
before.
As the number of verifiers increases and they begin staying overnight in
rural villages, the OSCE hopes confidence in the cease-fire will grow.
At worst, if the truce cracks, the verifiers will become human shields that
may deter the warring parties from careless shooting. An 1,800-soldier
NATO "extraction force" - expected to move into Macedonia as soon as
approved by its government - will be prepared to rescue verifiers if
necessary.
In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Albanian civilians remain
terrified of the Serbs. Many are unable to return to their damaged or
destroyed homes; others refuse to go home because they are convinced
the Serbs will kill them.
As the first snow fell across the province this past week, most refugees had
shelter, even if it was only a single, crowded room. Some rebuilding is
going on. But there is no real optimism that better times are coming anytime
soon. |
