To All, Barron's was good this week, despite the fact there was no letter from me this week. <G>
1. Abelson took a shot at the regionals, Fells Wargo, National Citislicker, First Onion and most of their ilk. His analyst claims that these firms will suffer by the Fed lowering rates as their spreads between loans and deposits will decline. O.K., I agree somewhat, but we have seen the savings rate in this country and, folks, there ain't no deposits. So, I see spreads coming down, but the lender behind the loans at the margin will mostly be the Fed, not savers. Same difference, net, net.
2. Alan shames himself by using technical analysis, despite claims of not liking it, to state that oil is about as low as it will get. I agree with the conclusion, but have to hate the method. HOwever, I did love the comment that technicians have an unerring ability to forecast the past. <G>
3. The guy who scammed the world with The Dogs of The Dow now tells how that didn't work, but the Dogs plus bonds does work. <G> I guess as long as the simple-minded are with us, simplistic concepts will take hold. Heaven forbid anyone should actually have to do research or know something about valuation to make money. <G>
4. Barron's prints another shake and bake system for stock picking. This time, the key is rising sales. I would really hate this crap except for the fact that two of my stocks, Schlumberger and Haliburton, make the short list. <G> But, give this concept short shrift. As I've always said, it ain't sales, it's margins that feed the bulldog.
5. A fluff piece about Calvin Coolidge, who presided over another 20th century manic asset bubble. The author thinks he was brilliant. I think most of the problems blamed on Hoover were caused by Coolidge stupidity. Of course, Hoover was no day at the beach, either. <G> But, I have to repeat here my favorite Calvin Coolidge story.
Cal and the First Lady were touring a farm in separate groups. Her group came upon a rooster performing his duty with a hen.
"How often does he do that in a day?" Mrs. Coolidge asked.
"10-20 times," the farmer said.
"Be sure to mention that to Mr. Coolidge."
Later, the farmer mentioned it to the President.
"Is the same hen always his love interest?" Silent Cal asked.
"Heck, no, Mr. President. He chooses a different hen every time."
"Be certain to tell Mrs. Coolidge that." <G>
Clinton is making the same point, though he is more a man of action than of words. <G>
6. Intel made the big insider sales list, with two insiders selling 20% of their holdings. Right after the announcement scams. As I've stated many times, these guys are robbing the poor to give to insiders.
7. Epstein quotes Hayek favorably, though, frankly, I can't even read a review of new undergrad economics texts. Man, are these econ writers lame-0s.
8. The Current Yield column is out to lunch. Pesek claims that The Fed has great credibility and is now trying to wean investors off of rate cuts. Say, what!!!!! You do not wean somebody by making him so drunk he can't walk straight. And you do not take actions that are economically idiotic and still have any claim to credibility. BTW, these latest reckless moves by the Fed have induced Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to become de facto hedge funds. Backed by our taxes. I think that sucks. This column hasn't been any good since Randy Forsyth jumped ship.
Good Luck
MB |
