"The majority of insider shares have been sold."
Many bears on this thread have lost a lot of money shorting this stock. Maybe it is time for a reality check. If you are a bear, do you believe the title of this post to be true?
Do you believe Rob S when he writes <<The VC holders are selling out completely. This astute group of investors generally know more about the dynamics of the company and the stock than many board members. In fact, they often sit on boards of the companies they participate in.>>
If you believe these things, and you are, in fact, wrong, do you really think you know enough to be selling this stock short?
Have you done your homework?
The truth is that the majority of insider shares are still held by insiders. The truth is that L. John Doerr has not sold ANY of the shares he personally holds. Only the shares held in his name by investors in KPCB have been sold. (Read the little footnotes to the SEC filings). So, this guy, on AMZN's board of directors, one of the smartest, internet-savvy venture capitalists around, has not sold ANY of his AMZN holdings. But how could he possibly know more than the bears on the AMZN thread?
But hey, don't believe me. All I have are simple facts. Believe bears on the thread who tell you what you want to hear, and what you want to believe. Don't let the truths which are incompatible with your investment strategy get in the way.
And, oh yeah, BTW. Bezos originally owned 9.8M of the 15.5M presplit shares owned by insiders at the IPO. The stock split. Bezos sold 1% of his holdings. Bezos alone still owns over 19M shares. Some stock options have been granted to insiders, but they are collectively are less than 1 million shares. If insiders held every single share, they would have about 33M, by my accounting. I have not added up the various insider sales. Its like trying to count a pile of $1 bills. It looks like a lot of money, until you carefully study it. Do the math. The majority of insider shares (at least 19M plus LJ Doerrs--) are still held by insiders.
If you folks can't get something as simple as this right, what makes you think you can outsmart the forces of supply and demand which are continuing to drive the AMZN share price up? I don't need to hear your answer to this question. But I think you need to muddle it over for yourselves in private.
Success or failure is a function of the quality of information and the tools brought to the investment table. Just because investors can discuss a stock on an investment thread, does not mean they know what they are doing.
I am not trying to make you people feel bad. I am trying to help. I wonder if there is a significant discrepancy between your level of confidence and your level of success with shorting this stock. Confident people are at risk for overconfidence. At risk to stop doubting themselves and to stop the rigorous analysis of their investment strategy. I know because I have been there. I have personal knowledge of losing six figures on an investment by thinking I knew what I was doing when, in truth, I did not.
My best advice would be to leave this one alone. And don't bet against the players in the keiretsu. If you want a wild ride, find the next E-bay. (And buy it the day of the IPO. Please don't sell it short.) Large cap stocks are expected to have a 4-5% increase in earnings in 1999. Their PE is around 25. There is a staggering amount of money that is going to leave these stocks soon and try to find a new home. The demand for large-cap liquid internet stocks will continue to greatly exceed the supply in 1999.
JMHO
Best Regards,
Tom
P.S. For the macroeconomics, please see my earlier post if interested
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