Sal/Laura - You both realize this is bad luck to say anything???? However.....I am following two major patterns for this stock. As I told you, with this stock having no history, I have no way of "knowing" which one is correct and am dependent upon INPATHIQUE's clues and ghost line to help guide me.
I have been concentrating on just one higher level chart (A) and finally added two months of data to the other (B) this weekend. I was floored. The price followed the predicted ghost, trans-set lines etc with uncanny precision. Perhaps and probably, I have been looking at the wrong long term chart.
Because I cannot be positive on this stock for the reasons provided before, let me share my current action plan.
If the long term chart I had not been following (B) is correct, I expect the stock to pull back next week, along with the DOW in general for that matter, to around $21.50 then take off to $35 by year end and be over $140 in today's presplit dollars by November of 1999. The drop back over the next week or so (An INPATHIQUE First X-over) is a vital clue to the future in this scenario. IF it drops back to $21.50 or so, I will be doubling up on my holdings and redoubling again by year end if it continues to follow paths that are reasonable to me given this chart.
On the other hand, the chart (A) I have been following calls for CGI to collapse next year. More on that in a minute.
I am not positive on the length of the current little bull set within (A). If it climbs slowly, I expect $30 during the first week of December (remember, the $25.25 was a worse case scenario). In either case, I expect to sell and say good bye to CGI.
If the stock takes off fast to $40 over the next 10 days (I will leave it to you to decide if that is reasonable), then I expect the stock to stumble back, then reach $45+ by year end before I sell and say good bye to CGI.
How can I be looking at two such dramatically different scenarios (A vrs B)? One (B) that says $140 by next November and one (A) that say good bye to CGI?
(by the way, good bye only means a long and very dramatic bear run. Not bankruptcy)
INPATHIQUE simply plots the influence of trading computers on a stock's price. Apparently, they are seeing two dramatic possibilities. I do not know what is in contracts such as BCE, but the major investors do and they have the possibilities programmed into their trading computers. I am guessing as to why two different patterns are being followed at the same time (not unusual by the way) but it could be that if all contractual conditions are met, the expected future is great for CGI (B), but there may be conditions that if they do not meet them, the contract can be cancelled in which case, the stock's price would follow the very bearish pattern (A).
In other cases like this, I see the stock's price following a path that satisfies both patterns until the very last instant. The change in price at that last instant is normally dramatic (up or down).
At any rate, you asked what do I see as an upside. $30, $35 and $45+ by year end. If it follows the correction over the next week or so and then rockets ahead to $35 by year end, I am looking for $140 in today's dollars by November of next year (B).
Remember, you said you will not hold me to it. I admit I am wishy washy on this stock and am following it closely. I just do not know what to expect except that there is more to be made this year under all scenarios. That is good enough for me to be long at this time.
Good luck and naturally, I am not making investment recommendations. I am simply sharing what I am seeing and what I am thinking and planning at this moment in time for myself.
Greg |
