<I am not trying to make you people feel bad. I am trying to help.>
Tom D:
Or maybe trying to make yourself feel superior to others -- who knows what one's motives are for writing online, believe another's assertion with caution.
As for the lack of insider sales -- we've mulched that one over a great deal -- Total Return Swaps and an array of other garden variety derivatives perform precisely the same economic function -- these people are not idiots. Any insider with enough shares to make the transaction costs worthwhile, would be insane not to do so.
Robert --
You and Tom are alright -- reasonable bulls (please work on cellhigh, only one lunatic allowed on this board and BATEMAN is the reigning champion, and he's just certifiably nuts, not an arrogant pontificating Fool) --
still why do you persist in this belief that there will exist 2 types of companies
cyber companies with no real estate
and bricks and mortars
as if they were mutually exclusive??
The BCG study (and common sense, imho) points to a few basic facts about "internet" or "e commerce"
1. amzn is not an internet company. Don't believe me, read Dale W's piece from TMF earlier this week. I don't like the guy's opinions, or respect his writing, but he's part of a company with a serious stake in amzn, which has sent out an insert to datek clients, urging them not to short amzn, and supports to some extent the valuations being given these companies,
and yet
he clearly states that this argument is ridiculous.
2. internet orders are not altogether different from phone orders or fax orders (yes, there are differences in what one can see, price shop etc.) after looking at a catalog.
3. you expect amzn to become the walmart of the web? where prey tell will they store the inventory? is it profitable for them to try and hold such an inventory v. companies which hold it anyway for their brick and mortar stores already?
4. amzn v. msn, aol, xcit, yahoo, nscp, lcos etc. etc. not a very fair match if you ask me ...
the model of online only business is already in decline ... if you can't see that non-shareholders will go for cheapest price and best selection every time (walmart's cheaper than amzn in books, movies, videos and any other product amzn sells, yahoo, xcit, and aol all cheaper via comparison shopping, all better selection).
i've heard the arguments come and go over the past 6 months
technology lead
touch and feel of community
trust
brand name
ease of entering credit card one time
each one -- replicable -- no barriers to entry for other major companies -- internet or brick and mortar --
please explain why in the world anyone would amzn rather than a bot, or a store with better selection and cheaper prices or one with real world locations so a gift recipient or even you could return or exchange the item if it wasn't to your liking
i really don't get it
lp
ps i have 00000 idea what will happent to the stock price on monday, next week, next month or even next 3 months, but i can assure you that within 12 months, it will be nowhere near as high as it currently is and may even play with single digits (though i'd guess between 10 and 20 -- which shows bezos' brilliance, split it 6:1 and keep it between 60 -- 120 presplit though it's wildly overvalued there as well) |
