Tom
You're alright (and coming from a cynical hard ass like me to a bull like you, you should take that as high praise). In any case -- the keiretsu, i've read and re-read, and while it matters, it only carries one so far (though a market cap of 10 BILLION is pretty damn far). Again, I have no idea for any near term time frame, but longer term there are just too many deep pocketed sharks who are pissed off circling in the water (ya think maybe walmart and bks got successful by being nice) and first mover advantage is trumped by lack of barriers to entry (by other positive free cash flow companies) and by substitution threat of price sensitive bots (junglee a weak attempt to join the margin busting brigade), and by intensity of competition already existing competions, in addition to ridiculously strong leverage of suppliers (amzn holds little inventory or so they claim and bks buys ingramm) and by customers -- one click margin destroying best price now heavan.
all in all, those are ALL 5 of Michael Porter's 5 forces -- amzn loses on each one (if you have not read porter's work -- go buy competitive advantage or any of his other more recent works)-- read the intro, skim the rest -- it ain't rocket science, but it's the basic template all b-school grads and consultants use (despite this, it is still insightful and has utility) -- heck even buy it at amzn, since each sale adds to losses (of any internet book seller at this point, other than borders probably) buy it anywhere
lp |
