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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Night Writer who wrote (37144)11/22/1998 3:52:00 AM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (3) of 97611
 
Night Writer: Briefing.com is very good at telling you what happened ten minutes ago. But is well known for quotes like "Contrary to our expectations, the market did (or didn't)....." . It is useful as a sample of one kind of current market opinion.

This latest summary of pros and cons is highly hedged. The hard facts are:

"Fed has cut the funds rate three times over the past six weeks, an extremely aggressive policy given that GDP growth remains in the 3.0%-2.5% range..."

"Despite big comeback, only 33% of stocks now trade above their 200-day moving averages"

"year/year growth totalling 2%-3% not awful but well below double-digit growth rates of a year ago... Though market estimates for the fourth quarter of this year have come down over past several weeks from 12%+ to near 7%........: S&P 500 back to trading at 28x trailing 12-mo earnings... " (But this is not true of Compaq year to year actual performance or expectations).

I think all the speculation about deflation is rubbish.

What we have is a reasonable concern, on the one hand, that because the market has recovered so strongly, it may be due for a pause or some consolidation, and on the other hand, the imminent emergence of all those forces which traditionally contribute to rising markets in November-February.

Victor
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