This article was written Sunday in the Chicago Tribune, by James Coates, computer guru extraordinar.
November 22, 1998
America Online Inc. and Netscape
Communications Corp. are in discussions
about a wide range of new partnerships,
including a possible deal to embed
Netscape's browser into AOL's on-line
service alongside or in place of Microsoft
Corp. software, according to people
familiar with the situation.
--Wall Street Journal, Nov. 18
Do I have to do all the thinking around
here?
Am I the only one to see that behind that
disclosure lies the fact that AOL and
Netscape are at least considering a deal to
transform Netscape into the geek-friendly
alter ego of family-friendly AOL itself?
Can't you see the good twin/evil twin genius
of the scheme to rule the Internet?
AOL keeps its 14 million customers and its
catbird seat as the Internet service provider
of choice for casual home hobbyists. Then it
incorporates Netscape into the mix to lure a
decidedly rougher and potentially even
more lucrative business crowd.
I suspect that with Netscape inside, AOL
will become the Internet service provider of
choice for Microsoft haters, Macintosh
lovers and a great many intermediate and
high-end PC users who will never settle for
the tame and mundane training wheels feel
of AOL's current clunky
Microsoft-enhanced proprietary software.
Am I alone in seeing this plot to resurrect
Netscape from its doldrums as a
second-place, beleaguered browser builder
sucking Microsoft's fumes into a killer
Internet service provider, one that offers the
same sort of dial-up Internet connections
that make AOL and the Microsoft Network
the two largest ISPs in America?
Am I the only one who can see that
together AOL and Netscape can offer not
only America's busiest Web portal site but
also a no-fuss dial-up connection to the
Internet that will appeal to businesspeople
and the technologically adroit as well as to
the public?
Am I nuts?
Never mind that last question.
Anyway, today's speculation started when
the undisputed dean of journalists covering
AOL, Kara Swisher, reported exclusively in
the Wall Street Journal that Netscape and
AOL were locked in secret negotiations
over a wide range of issues including
possibly making Netscape's browser the
one used to log on to the Web through
America Online.
Swisher's credentials in any AOL/Netscape
story are huge as author of the recent Times
Books release "aol.com: How Steve Case
Beat Bill Gates, Nailed the Netheads and
Made Millions in the War for the Web."
The disclosure that the two sides are abuzz
in dealmaking sessions triggered huge
run-ups in both outfits' stock, with AOL
shares gaining 11 percent and Netscape
shares 34 percent in a single day.
Something big and secret is afoot, traders
assumed, with AOL's Case and his
command staff at family-friendly America
Online Inc. courting the hypertext hot shots
led by CEO James Barksdale and
co-founder Marc Andreessen at
geek-friendly Netscape Communications
Inc.
What I am suggesting today is that the
greatest potential that could come out of an
AOL/Netscape alliance would be to create
a huge, new dial-up Internet service
provider that would start customers out on
an Internet portal created by marrying the
current portal sites of the courting couple.
And almost everybody agrees that the
hottest prospect in today's Internet frenzy is
to create dominant portals, those Web sites
like www.excite.com, www.yahoo.com,
etc., that act as starting points for every
Internet session.
One perceptive expert, John Rhinelander of
Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester
Research Inc., pointed out when I
interviewed him after Swisher's story broke,
that between the two of them, AOL and
Netscape own the largest single Web portal
site on earth.
The latest survey by Metrix, the Internet's
audience measuring giant, showed Yahoo
as the top portal with 26.1 million users and
aol.com in second place with 21.8 million.
Other contenders: Microsoft, 19.6 million;
Lycos, 17.6 million; Excite, 16.6 million and
Netscape, 16.3 million.
With more than 38 million between them,
Netscape and AOL would dominate the
Internet portal scene from the git go.
You will note that two of these top portals,
AOL and Microsoft, offer dial-up Internet
connections as well as elegant Web sites
that compete with the rest as gateways that
customers can use as a personal launching
platform for each Internet session.
With AOL's strong relationship with MCI
Worldcom Inc., the largest supplier of
Internet dial-up connectivity on Planet
Earth, a deal with Netscape could allow
Netscape to offer its already intensely loyal
and sophisticated customer base not only its
superb browsing software but also a dial-up
IP (Internet Protocol) connection and a
wealth of AOL content.
And then Barksdale, Andreessen, Case and
all their assorted stockholders will be even
richer than they now are.
Do I have to do all the thinking for these
guys, too?
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