Gersh
My problem is that I dont know much about who the big boys (that is, the large commercial hedgers) are, much less why they do what they do
I can understand large commercial hedgers in copper or grain or something, but the financials leave me cold
I gather that the big boys are banks, insurance companies, pension funds, etc
the big boys are bigger than most mutual funds, which come in under the large speculator category most of the time - I am familiar with this crowd using s&p futures as actual hedges or as a quick way to get their cash hoards invested (which is probably why this group is net long now, which at least to Jim Bianco, is an unnatural state of events)
the big boys generally seem to like to be long - sustained periods of net short (like 5 or more weeks) is very rare - the pattern I see is an abrupt increase in their short contracts until the market actually breaks, then there is a gradual return to normal relations as the market either declines further or stabilizes
rememebr, these observations are just that, my own observations on open interest in futures contracts patterns and relationships to movement in the s&p 500 -- there is no guru system behind this or anything = however, that is not to say these patterns dont hold up...
Bob |
