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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Jack Be Quick who wrote (31946)11/23/1998 8:04:00 AM
From: diana g  Read Replies (3) of 95453
 
NOESIS Forecast:

oil-gasoline.com

"... The U.S. oil companies held off their normal strategy of pulling down inventories for year-end
accounting until it appeared that we would see new, higher minimum levels at the first of the 1999
fiscal year. However, this week's data suggests refiners may be making a last ditch effort to reduce
inventories. Stocks dropped by 2.5 million and imports dropped from 8.9 to 7.8 million bpd. Postings
for crudes slid to: West Texas Intermediate $9.50 and Kern River (13 API) $7.00 per barrel -- a sure
indication that refiners aren't interested in buying crude oil right now! It is likely that prices will remain
low as refiners adjust their inventories. Then they should pop back up. How soon they level out and
pop back depends on the refiner's target levels for year-end inventories. At the very least, prices
should increase after January 1. ..."

"... FOR NOW, NOESIS is staying with its forecast, even though it looks like the price of 34 API crude
oil may dip down to about $10.00 temporarily. Based on current industry data, it appears that the
price of crude oil will go up next spring as supplies tighten. There are many crude oil production
fields around the world which cannot be produced at less than $12.00 per barrel, so eventually those
marginal fields will be shut in. The major oil companies have already announced drastic reductions in
capital spending, which means exploration and development of newly discovered fields will be on
hold for awhile. ..."
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