Q, Well Positioned?>
New generation of mobile phones will have little to do with
talk Future mobiles will be an extension of the office for
faxes, emails and video links
The Irish Times
The countdown to the introduction of third
generation cellular radio networks has begun. In
Japan, the first third generation networks should
be up and running by 2001. In Europe and the
US, the aim is to launch in 2002.
There is still some disagreement over what the standards should look like.
At the moment it looks as though the US may go one way, Europe and
Japan another. But there is remarkably little disagreement between the
various parties over what third generation will offer.
"Since we have enough spectrum allocated in existing hands to cope with
voice alone until the year 2010, the whole emphasis about third generation is
not about voice at all," notes Mr Ian Sugarbroad, vice-president responsible
for business development at Nortel, the Canadian-owned telecoms
equipment maker which employs 900 people in Galway.
"It will do voice. It will do voice cheaper. But the focus of this is coming
down to mobile access to Internet-type networks."
Today's second generation cellular radio networks send the bulk of their
information over circuit-switched connections. This means that a connection
is tied up by a user continuously from when the link is established to when it
is cleared down - whether or not any information is being communicated.
Third generation will use packet connections, which work more like a
computer local area network (Lan) or a taxi control radio system. The
channel is open all of the time but is shared by many users. It is only tied up
by a user at the precise moment when information is sent or received. This
approach is particularly efficient for data communications.
"Third generation will be the intersection between voice and data," says Mr
Bob Bond, vice-president responsible for regulatory affairs at San
Diego-based Qualcomm. There will also be an all-round capacity and data
communications speed increase, he adds. This is likely to have a great
impact on mobile communications for the end user.
"It puts the Internet in your pocket," says Mr Ukko Lappalainen, head of
marketing and business development of radio access systems at Finland's
Nokia Telecommunications. "Data and image will become as familiar ways
of communicating as voice is today. People will expect to be able to do
anything on the move which they have grown used to being able to do at
home or in office."
This is likely to include sending and checking emails or faxes, Internet
browsing, group working or uploading or downloading computer files.
These things can be done on today's second generation systems but with
third generation they will be faster and richer.
"The difference between second generation and third generation is like radio
and television or like the propeller and the jet engine," says Mr Hakan
Djuphammar, director of Third Generation product strategy at Swedish
telecoms equipment maker [ L M Ericsson ] .
"Third generation is going to be a lot about sending pictures and video clips.
It's also about more of the same but faster - especially when it comes to
data communications such as Internet browsing."
Third generation handsets could incorporate cameras, screens capable of
supporting moving images and data input devices such as keyboards as well
as the microphone, speaker and keypad of today's phones. Either that or
they may go the other way, becoming simple communications gateway
devices clipping to a belt or kept in a pocket and giving other pieces of
equipment such as personal digital assistants or headsets access to the
network.
As with any big change, there are some concerns. A big fear is that there
could be a disruption to the market during the transition between second and
third generation.
"We could end up with a stall in the market," says Mr Sanjay Jhawar,
business manager, Smartphone and Data Products at US company
Motorola's European Cellular Subscriber Division. "{With first and second
generation systems} wireless data took a lot longer to get going than we
expected and has really only started to take off in the last year. There is a
danger of it all stalling again."
The key to third generation's success will be to find applications that make it
essential for consumers. Third generation's video supporting capabilities
have been widely touted as a potential "must have". But not everyone is so
confident.
"I'm not sure video alone will make it a success. Video-phones and
video-conferencing have been around for years and they are still only tiny
niches," says Mr Neil Montefiore, chief executive of Singapore cellular
operator MobileOne.
Ms Monica Horten, high-tech marketing specialist and author of a
forthcoming report* on the convergence of the information industries and
mobile communications, believes the real driver will be information.
"The key for the industry is to discover what people will want to receive via
third generation," she says.
A new business called Infomedia will emerge, says Ms Horten. This will be
the business of producing and distributing information via new media such as
third generation. "Infomedia will form a significant proportion of traffic over
third generation networks," she says. The keys to success will be the ability
to deliver quality and people knowing who you are and trusting you, she
says. Divide and Rule: Infomedia on Mobile Networks. A Strategic
Analysis. Published by M.com, www.mcom.mcmail.com.
(Copyright 1998)
_____via IntellX_____
Publication Date: November 21, 1998
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