Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.77

+0.9%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: blake_paterson who wrote (26615)	11/23/1998 1:25:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) of 70976

BBlake,><<This may indicate that around the first/middle part of Aug is the annual time to get out on the up cycle.>>< This is why I used the term may. I agree with you that the time for selling could be earlier. From reading my post this weekend I tried to lay out the sequence which I believe we need to watch to determine we when will exit AMAT. Figuring our the high exit point for me is the hardest thing for me. Hopefully, this time I will exit at the right time. Guess I better you my approach, "What is the upside gain vrs the downside risk" on tops as well. I will try to let my statistics, probabilities, Gottfried's charts and TA DW charts tell me when. According to my Standard Deviation of the absolute high I get $101.50 for this up cycle. My short range AMAT projection is $64. I wish I had the Relative Strength numbers and Sector Industrial numbers for AMAT in the IBD for AMAT from 1995-July1997 in order to see if there is any relationship between this up cycle. Is there anyone who has access to this data? If you have such data please post the source to it. The mutual funds, IMO, held AMAT stock price up rather than letting it drop like the orders and shipment numbers did during this last down cycle and caught many of our knowledgeable investors on this site. In my opinion, Gottfried's Order and Shipment Chart is perhaps the most important data to watch. Thanks Gottfried. Just my $.02. Paul V.

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