Roger, if this isn't a blow-off top day then I don't know what is. But saying that, I don't really think we are heading down, actually. This is such a huge unparalleled frenzy that I think it will take quite a while to calm down, perhaps even several months. Earnings will start in January so it is conceivable that we just keep going up till March or April or May. I really think this top is unlike the one in the summer. Then it was the big strong leaders, the dells and cscos and msfts that pushed the market higher. However the rest of the market correctly went nowhere or even lower because their earnings were pathetic. Now earnings no longer matters and everything is flying (except for one or two pathetic loser stocks that I own). So this is the real thing, the real slam bam thank you maam top. Saying that, I think it is impossible to have a correction lasting 2 years like in '73-74. There are too many boomers out there with too much money to throw at any declining market. So even with this insane blow-off I don't see us repeating another 20% decline anytime in the next few years, and within 5 years we will probably be over 20,000. It looks like now the only thing that can stop this market is the boomers starting to retire, which is a good solid 10 years away. Until then, shorting is a losing bet, unless you are quick or stick to the scams and the cripples. So yes, we do decline 5% here starting next week maybe. But then we immediately march straight back up, possibly as high as 12000 by March. Greenspan has consciously decided to decimate bonds and all competing investments with stocks. It's the only game left. I really wonder if Greenspan has done the right thing by putting all the US eggs into the stock market. Sure it's incredibly strong, stronger than its biggest fan even dreamed. But still, killing everything else seems risky to me at least. But I know this also, Greenspan is the worst nightmare ever for shorters, and the smartest man who has ever held that much power. If/when he retires there is a very good chance (reversion to the mean) that some boob will take over for him. But that might be in the late 2000's as well so it looks quite tough these days for shorties. I don't think we can experience more than one of these 20% corrections every 3-5 years so now the traders feel safe at least till 2001 or thereabouts...
About the internuts, I say the lousy small cap hype stocks will be the first to sink, and yhoo and aol and probably that most absurd of all stocks amzn will be the last. |
