Brief commentary:
If you take a look today at a list of small to mid-cap stocks, you will see that they woefully underperformed today. On the other hand, financials, pharmaceuticals, and mega-cap techs had a stellar day today. So today's lack of activity in ATVI is not particularly peculiar. Yes, we did have sharp rallies in THQI, TLC and MAT....all connected to their game/licensing of the Rugrats brand...the movie did exceptionally well this weekend. Actually, TLC probably has the best deal...they have Blue's Clues...the hottest child series out there...bigger than Barney and Sesame St... and also Rugrats.
Since ATVI broke resistance at $14, it is important for ATVI to stay in this range. The stock cannot obviously continue to shoot straight up and the longer we go without a correction or a plateau, the harder it will be to move forward. We are after all, up nearly 60% from the low. Based on the accumulation pattern, however, it is clear that there is still big money at the table...large positions continue to be taken. For example, a late day 40K share trade kicked us up marginally higher today.
If we fall through support at $14, expect a temporary retracement to about $13 1/2, next stop $12 3/4 and potentially $12 could be in order. If we, instead, hold in the $14 range, expect to see some sharp intraday sell-offs, marked by closing unchanged for the day. This would be very bullish...and portend a sharp move to the upside.
I still maintain that there is an incredibly large amount of accumulation going on in this stock....big money is here and is taking a serious position. If we do move higher, $16 will be taken out rather easily with resistance at $18.5.
The fundamentals of ATVI's business is still fairly on track.. Sin did not do so well...though sold well at first, but the slate of PSX games and N64 games will carry the day.
Tom |
