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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.92

+3.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (25469)	11/23/1998 9:15:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Jacob Snyder MrGreenJeans: re: "Low inflation + Low interest rates + Slow Growth + A Decrease in Rates + Decent profit growth in 1999 = A sustainable upside" IMO, all the requirements for the continuation of the goldilocks scenario are going to happen, except the "Decent profit growth in 1999" part. Let's be specific about this: A: what is the profit growth in 1999 that would be required to have an increase in the market's PE? B: what will profit growth be in 1999? My guess is that A=10-15%, and B=0-5%. I think the odds of B=or>A are quite small. So, you don't get the sustainable upside. Instead, you get a volatile market going sideways, at best. Jacob, looks like your prediction was incorrect.

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