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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Rocketman who wrote (5994)11/23/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: RCMac   of 9719
 
>>feel we can buy [SEPR] back in early '99 cheaper.<< Well, maybe -- SEPR has come a long way very quickly.

But maybe not. SEPR has said a couple of times recently that it is actively discussing licensing or co-promotion deals for several of its ICE's, and expects to sign up one more deal by year end. One of the links is: techstocks.com

If they do announce a deal in the near term, particularly if that deal is with Lilly for SEPR's ICE for Prozac, SEPR will surely be up another 10 or 15 points in a couple of days, and the hope of seeing the 60's or even the 70's again may be gone. I suspect that holding onto SEPR rather than hoping for a lower reentry point is the safer thing to do. (It's what I've done, even though I've had a part of my position long enough to pay capital gains tax rates.) This is a stock you don't want to miss the upside on.

BTW, great call on the ENMD short, Rman. Good analysis, great timing. (Recall that 10 or12 years ago, several guys went to jail for too neatly anticipating WSJ "Heard on the Street" columns, including the writer of the column. If you were playing with real money here, you might be expecting an SEC knock at your door. <g>)

I think you're plainly right to take profits on the ENMD short, though -- I thought at first you were right that the stock would go much lower, but the investing public has apparently discounted the criticisms set out in the WSJ article (I suppose mistrusting the press like the public mistrusts the press on the Monica scandal), so there may not be any movement until the next news.

-- RCM
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