Don,
>>WOW, thats alot of work<<
Yes, it was in the beginning, and now all that is needed from time to time are subtle refinements, which are equivalent to an artist waving a few brush strokes over a nearly finished painting.
The latest of these refinements was a correction in the size calculation of Primary Wave 1 in this Cycle wave which began in Dec. '94 and ending at the highs in May of '96 (239 vs. the incorrect 270).
The other refinement was pinpointing the end of the wave 4 correction that began May 4th of this year and ended in early October. Wave formations don't always complete at the deepest or hightst part of the move, and I strongly believe this was the case in early October concerning the decline. The wave formation suggests that this Corrective move did not end until October 9th, at 953.04, instead of the 923.32 low of October 8th.
Both these points are extremely important in correctively identifying the likely ending of this 5th wave, which I believe is 1192 (953.04 + 239). We may see slightly higher prices than this inside of the 5th wave, but I believe the probabilities are in favor of this 5th wave ending near this level in the next week or so. What might follow this 5th wave? Do we really want to know? It's a scary thought as to what COULD be awaiting us, don't you agree?
Regards,
David
P.S. As far as this being a Bear Market Rally, I have to disagree with that conclusion on the major indices, although it could be the case on the RUT, BKX, XBD and some of the other indices you mention. As for the broader market, this rally is the completion and culmination of the Bull Market that began 8/82, as well as the hyper Bull Market that began 12/94. Didn't we all know this thing would have to end with fireworks? |
