Shares of TCBG showed increasing volume and a price spike in and around the 2 pm hour. I have not encountered any news on the market. Anticipation of news to come?
As children of the beverage group, the anticipated news events are so many that to guess at them. Well, your guess is as good as mine. Nice to see a rise past 90 cents. Flip 90 cents upside down and that is about how much higher I need to stock to go just to breakeven.
In a thought on Wal-mart, December 21 remains the end date of Fall.
Wal-mart has been busy with 4th quarter sales. Not the introduction of new product lines. If you were Wal-mart, would you step in and take Christmas products off the shelves to place Great Value? An inch of shelf space amounts what kind of revenues with respect to 500 superstores? I doubt they will give up an inch let alone make accomondations for the space needed to place Great Value.
IMO, no placement of product in the Fall.
Wal-mart is freeing up space in the warehouses as 4th inventory is being stock piled in the stores. By the last day of Fall, the prospects remain decent that Wal-mart will seek delivery of product. Placement of product, IMO, will to take place "after" Christmas. But product has to be shipped to consider placement.
This then brings us to production. To take delivery of the product, one must have the inventory. Where does TCBG stand? Is production on line. Any produced product ready/stored for Wal-marts warehouse?
The 4th quarter is pretty busy for the beverage manufacturers as well. A lot of packaged beverages are sold this time of year. Maybe production on other lines has attention focused elsewhere. When things slow down, TCBG gets some attention. When things slow down, I'm not entirely sure. But beverage sales go on to New Years.
This would not bold well for production by December 21 and along with it - shipment of the product. This would leave the "inking" (so to speak) of a deal with Wal-mart (T&C's?) and or the giving out of a PO number. Who really knows?
There could be news on audited finances. A risk going foward that should be considered is a reverse stock split. If TCBG seeks listing onto Nasdaq, it might have to employ means to arrive at the min. stock price required ($5.00 a share). If not achieved by market means (always unpredictable), than by corporate means (ie: reverse the stock). Such a future action might be indicated by the special dividend paid. If not mistaken, these shares become unrestricted in June of 1999.
No matter, I'm holding to at least December 21. Things become tricky there. If no meaningful news is reported, the stock price most likely won't move. And if there is no news by Dec 21, I would suspect some tax selling pressure. Most of those have have posted come across as being under the water. Given that this is the only market I can draw inferences on, the prospects of tax selling pressure seems to be there.
Wish everyone the best of Thanks and Giving. I'm going to sit down to dinner and hope I put on some weight and become fat.Do I eat this turkey or does it fill my pocket? I've done some carving already. Trimmed off some of the fat so to speak. Now pass the gravy!
KSully |
