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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Vector1 who wrote (6018)	11/24/1998 6:57:00 AM
From: David Cathcart	Read Replies (1) of 9719

V1, <<I thought the [MOGN] press release was somewhat hyped.>> Peter Suzman mentioned the same thing on the MOGN thread and the release certainly did have a different tone relative to others we have seen from the company. A few thoughts along this line: Richard Dean Bagnell pointed out on the Yahoo MOGN thread that in one month the reported tumor shrinkage of the phase I pancreatic patient went from >50% to >70%. This was between the fifth and sixth months of treatment. His point was that perhaps the drug works better as the tumor gets smaller. It is interesting that the tumor shrunk 40% in that one month span. It is also interesting that MGI 114 can be given to a patient for that long a period of time. He is still being dosed. What will the next report be? I realize that this is only one patient and the possibility exists that he could be the only pancreatic cancer patient to respond as he has. But given the lack of any approved drug that shrinks pancreatic cancer tumors, this looks encouraging. We will have 50 data points from the phase II trial in six to nine months to let us know if optimism is justified. If those data points look good, could we see anything other than fast track approval for pancreatic cancer? Another thought is that perhaps there are other things happening with the drug, that we are not privy to, that would give the company confidence to venture further out on the limb of confidence. For example, the prostate cancer phase II trial is in its fourth month and perhaps they are beginning to see something there. Chuck Blitzer pointed out at a presentation in NYC last month that he in no way wants MOGN to have the hype around it that ENMD has. He no longer is emphasizing the Euro deal for MGI 114 and in fact he seems quite comfortable at this point in the absence of one. He is confident that they will get the Euro deal and, when they do, it will be the right deal for the company and its shareholders. One would have to think that the value of that deal is going up as we move forward. Time will tell but MGI 114 is looking more and more exciting as the trials progress. David

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