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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17128)11/24/1998 8:03:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (2) of 18056
 
Zeev; Market has soared faster and further than either of us expected. Year-end decline (perhaps as much as 1000 points) now more likley than year-end rally if this insanity continues much longer. But the bullish underpinnings will remain intact until commodity prices pick up, bond yields move above 5.5%, and the dollar heads south again. Probably next spring.

Morgan Stanley's Steve Roach reports that China's "best and brightest" very concerned about the US equity bubble.

In my discussions with SAFE, we spent considerable time probing the perils in the broader global
landscape. Not surprisingly, Brazil and Japan were at the top of their worry list. But next in line was
the United States and the reemergence of a worrisome equity bubble. Like me, the Chinese are
particularly concerned about the linkage between America's seemingly reckless personal saving
behavior and a surging stock market. For a nation with a 40% saving rate, China views the now
negative saving rate in the US with shock and dismay. In their view, this is a clear and urgent sign of a
new vulnerability. They fear that it is now only a matter of time before an equity shock ushers in a long
overdue retrenchment of the increasingly wealth-dependent American consumer.
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