INDEX UPDATE
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Im not playing internuts either long or short, since it does not fit my system, but I would like to bring it up for discussion.
I was reading somewhere that these phenomenons of upward explosiveness have a relative short longevity, of only a few years. Please correct me if I am incorrect - The TULIPs, and the early trading companies hundreds of years ago went thru explosive growth but did not last long. Tulips and trading are still around.
The internets started a few years ago but the craze really started this year. How long did the craze last for NSCP and IOM. I checked the charts and it appears that they both peaked near the beginning of 96 and within approximately 1 year they lost more than half of their value. Does anyone know how long the TULIP and TRADING COMPANY craze lasted.
I am suspecting that these market crazes last about 1 year.
I realise that many will say that the internet is the way of the future and they will be here to stay, and I fully agree, just the same way tulips and trading and Netscape are still here. I guess what I am saying is that once the INTERNUTs become the norm/widely accepted, reality will step in and the craze will be over. The internets, in general, will still be here but I feel that they will lose a substantial part of their value and some may even go under.
In the near future, the market will have a better understanding of how to value the internets, and when that happens reality will take over.
Heres my guess - the internets could peak within the next 6 months, and about 1 year thereafter the internets could lose 1/2 or more of their value, so that would put a major decline to end by mid 2000 or earlier.
Of course there will be a few internets doing better than the rest, and may not be hurt as much.
As for the market, a short-term top should be here within 3 days - but the dip may be so small(maybe only intraday), that most wont even notice it. However, I also believe that a MID-TERM TOP(30 days) is near buy and should occur in DEC. Yeah, I realise that most feel we are heading up strong still. Outside of SI, there are very few of those I have contact with that feels we are near a TOP - most are saying 10000 definitely by 1st quarter.
Although the new highs did get above 100 yesterday, there are still many indexes which are lagging the major indexes (RUT,XAL,TRAN,FPP,CYC,BKX,XBD(although BKX/XBD did show strength yesterday)).
Seeya |
