Hi I am glad to see that there are a few people following this company.
I also own shares in SYB and intend to keep them well into the future. I have included the latest news release -- discussing a marketing/distribution arrangement for Canada -- from SYB in the message below. In answer to your previous question, the release header mentions that SYB has 15.5MM I&O.
The latest report from Yorkton Research put the 12 month price forecast at $25. The basis of the price forecast is the price of the treatment ($5000/each) and the incidence of Hamberger disease (50,000 world wide). I believe that the incidence may underestimate potential sales. Consider:
1. Hamberger disease is caused by an infection of E.coli (0157). These bacteria produce a toxin that causes the harmful effects of the infection. Apparently the harmful effects range from diarreha to HUS which is the condition that can lead to kidney failure. Though a new series of tests are underway, it is not now beleived that SYNSORB Pk can reverse the kidney failure once it occurs.
2. As evidenced by the recent outbreaks of Hamberger disease -- Jack-in-the-Box, infected radish sprouts in Japan, infected meat pies in Scotland, infected unpasteurized apple juice in western North America -- outbreaks of Hamberger disease seem to affect people in groups. Meaning that many people will be effected at one time.
Given that SYNSORB Pk is a treatment that prevents hamberger disease from growing into HUS, and that many outbreaks will involve multiple infections, it is reasonable to assume that every hospital pharmacy will have to carry an inventory SYNSORB Pk. As a result, I beleive that sales of SYNSORB Pk will grow to reflect this inventory behavior.
Now, what's missing??? Have I misinterpretted the disease and treatment? Do hospital pharmacies receive special arrangements that allow them to carry drugs with out paying? Will insurance companies pay for the use of the drug once the infection with E.coli 0157 is proven, prior to the threat of HUS?
Let me know what you think .
Dave Zabrocki
zabrocki@nucleus.com
Synsorb Pk to be marketed in Canada
Synsorb Biotech Inc SYB
Shares issued 15,474,220 Jan 3 close $11.00
Mon 6 Jan 97 News Release
Mr Brad Thompson reports
Synsorb Biotech has signed a marketing and distribution agreement for Synsorb Pk in Canada with Pharmascience Inc, one of the country's fastest growing pharmaceutical companies.
Pharmascience has the exclusive rights to market and distribute Synsorb Pk in Canada. Synsorb Biotech will complete product development, including its phase III clinical trial for Synsorb Pk in Canada and subsequently manufacture and package Synsorb Pk at its Alberta based manufacturing facility. Pharmascience will begin marketing and distribution of Synsorb Pk upon regulatory approval in Canada. Financial terms of the agreement were undisclosed.
Pharmascience is Canada's third largest generic drug manufacturer with $70 million in sales from more than 330 brand-name and generic products. The company markets and distributes products for a number of worldwide pharmaceutical companies in Canada.
Synsorb Pk is a potential treatment for the prevention of Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome (HUS), one of the most serious complications resulting from E.coli O157:H7 infections, commonly known as Hamburger Disease in North America. The disease is a leading cause of both acute and chronic renal insufficiency in children and is recognized as one of the fastest growingfoodborne infectious diseases in the world. E. coli O157:H7 was the cause of recent outbreaks in the US, Germany,Scotland and Japan. The largest of these, in Japan, saw more than 9,000cases of the infection and 12 fatalities over the summer of 1996.
In November 1996, Synsorb Biotech signed an agreement with Takeda ChemicalIndustries, Japan's largest pharmaceutical firm for the development anddistribution of Synsorb Pk in Japan. The agreement in Canada withPharmascience is the second country where the company's lead product hasbeen licenced.
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