Brien-I'm looking for inspiration myself, although the stock has recovered from $31(way oversold) to $55 (kinda slow right now), about 77%. Goto to
techstocks.com
or 6054587, to get last major new product pronouncements from conference call.
President Mike Birck, at Warburg Telecom.conference on 11/16/98 said "4 major new products forthcoming in next several months, including one in optical networking". This fourth 1/4, double-size Titan, ATM AN2100 should be coming out. DWDM "leader" products coming in 1999, along with Broadband Transport Manager trials. My 1999 price goal is $55 (current price) times 1.34 (about 34%growth in net income) =$72. Or another way to look at it, is to take goal of $2.45 net/share in 1999, times 34 PE(telecom.average)=$83/share by end of 1999, up 55% from current levels.
The main thing that would change this, is for the perception of potential future growth, that Tellab's has with it's more spectulative investors, could change and raise it's future PE to 40 or 45 (normally PE ratio should equal the rate of growth of net earnings per year). One has only to look at the wild off the charts spectulation and non-existant PE's that exist in internet stocks, to see that the wild bulls have returned to the market. I feel that about 1/3 of the investors in Tellab's, are on the sidelines,waiting for proof that Tellab's is not a 2 horse company, with a future in optical networking area, among others.
I too have been a long term bull on this one,but with patience will retire on this stock in about 2 years.
Good Hunting
DAVE DICKERSON |
