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Technology Stocks : AMD: A thread for real AMD investors not nit-picking twits
AMD 250.10-3.7%3:59 PM EST
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To: Brian Hutcheson who wrote (88)11/24/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Frank  Read Replies (3) of 254
 
Brian,

I'm not arguing with your figures, but with the level of confidence you hold to such figures.

If you were to give a probabilty rating to your figures:

1. What would be the probabilty you would see that AMD could maintain an Average Sales Price of $110?

2. What would be the probablity you would see that AMD will sell 5.2 mil chips this qtr?

3. How confident would you be in assuming that their other segments, which have shown weakness will turn the corner and provide some value to the bottom line?

If you take all of these factors into consideration, I feel that your estimate is decidely over optimistic, while possible, it does not appear likely. I'd suggest that the more likely range is still below 30 cents per share.

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