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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 228.68+1.2%Nov 17 3:59 PM EST
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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (26679)11/24/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
>>Short of the above, I am not sure what would rush the upgrades that the semi eq
companies are hoping for, especially in any significant magnitude.

Katherine, what do you think?<<

For several months now I've been saying that a equipment revenue recovery isn't likely until mid-99. That's still my opinion. I also said about a month ago that the stocks had probably bottomed because the news isn't getting worse, but would probably experience some turbulence when earnings don't turn around immediately. That's also still my opinion. I hold the former opinion more strongly than the latter, since I don't follow the stock dynamics in the sector that closely.

Re: investment strategies, my long term hold investments have recovered nearly all of their September-October losses. That includes a significant position in foreign equities, which was hammered even worse than the domestic stuff in the drop. My short-intermediate term trade investments are going up like rockets, but I'm being very wary with stops. My overall cash allocation is the same as it's always been. The market isn't rational; what I think should happen doesn't seem to matter much. I'd rather be rich than right.

(But then I don't hold AMZN, so what do I know?)

Katherine
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