robert--
excellent post, though i have a few things i would like to discuss.
i do not equate the inets to tulips because as you correctly noted, tulips were (partly) an aesthetic investment. however, they are also a commodity...a website, IMHO is a commodity. so there you can draw a link. branding does not differentiate as brand co-opting and creation is easy and relatively inexpensive.
now, if there is a comparison to be drawn, how about drawing it to the letter stocks of the late 60s. that would seem to be appropriate...
new business models, heavy use of the words 'paradigm' and 'synergy', illiquid trading, and small floats. that market tanked, and i think so will this one.
i will say this, the inets will be around for a while...and there will be others. competition will increase dramatically and as a result the stock prices will decline. the internet is a fantastic medium, but you should not make the mistake of thinking it will transform society. the only difference between the internet and the more traditional structures is that the net is faster, and in some cases cheaper.
this gorrilla game book sounds interesting. i am a little sceptical of this new economy as i have been a (dissapointed) reader of wired since issue one (i like the sections up front...the articles are mostly fit only to wrap seafood). however, maybe we are heading for a cultural singularity. if so, you can rest assured that the future will likely be so different that any investment stands a good chance of going down the toilet.
good luck to all,
trey |
