Posted last night on AOL.
Peabody Report Update: 11/24/98
Here's today's pfantastic stats and a special Peabody Report Update.
Have a Happy, Healthy and PFun Thanksgiving!
BigKNY3
PFE - PFIZER INC
Last Price: 116 1/8 at 17:09 EST
Change: Up 4 1/4 (+3.80%)
High: 116 7/8 at 15:52 EST
Low: 112 1/4 at 9:36 EST
Open: 112 3/4
Previous Close: 111 7/8 on 11/20
Volume: 4,946,300
30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,395,000
Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000
52-Week High: 121 3/4
52-Week Low: 69.56
Beta: 1.00
Yield: 0.60%
P/E Ratio: 46.64
EPS: 2.49
Peabody Report Update
The current Valley to Peak is a mighty 31.2%. A new pending Peabody Peak of 116.88 was reached yesterday. A new target Peabody Valley was raised to 107.53 to be reached within the next 3 weeks.
......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days
.....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (11/23/98)......From Today
Last Peabody Peak*:..... 11/23/98......116.88..........+0.6% ...................-1
Last Peabody Valley: .....10/14/98.......88.50.......... -23.8% .................-41
* Pending
Forecasted Next Valley....12/14/98.....103.30..........-11.0%......................20
Potential Peak Valley Strike Price..... 107.53...........-7.4%
Forecasted Next Peak................... 120.38............+3.7%..................
(If Model is Wrong)
_____________________________________
Peabody Peaks and Valleys History (1990-1998)
Here is a summary of the 71 Peaks and Valleys in this decade:
........... #..............%..................#................%
......Peabody.....Average ........Peabody.......Average
......Valleys.......Decline............Peaks........Increase
1990.... 2......... -20.3%..............2...............39.4%
1991.... 0................-.................1................168.8%
1992.... 3..........-15.8%..............3.................16.1%
1993.....4..........-20.7%..............4.................23.3%
1994.....1..........-24.5%..............-...................-
1995.....2..........-10.2%..............3.................47.1%
1996.... 6..........-12.1%..............5.................21.0%
1997.....5..........-14.8%..............5.................32.3%
1998.....12.........-11.8%.............13...............17.3%
........... 35.........-14.4%.............36................28.1%
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Peabody Short-term PForecasts
The following Reuters summary provides an excellent explanation of the recent Dow surge:
" Don't try to corral this bull market, just yet. Investors may be looking at the ''Rally to Remember,'' if an old Wall Street maxim is correct. Investment guru Norman Fosback developed a trading theory back in 1970 that says the stock market has showed boundless upward energy whenever the Federal Reserve makes two or more interest rate cuts in a row. ''It's a very old and reliable bullish signal for the market that's called 'Two tumbles and a jump'
rule,'' says Don Hays, chief investment strategist for Wheat First Union in Richmond, Va."
Gut-feel: Expect a positive follow-through to yesterday's surge. However, anytime I feel this good about the PFE and the market, something happens to promote profit-taking. Short-term: be very careful!! Da Model is clear: at these levels, the probability of a down trend is much higher than up. Long-term: no problema....a great company, great management, great future, great products.
_______________________________________
Peabody Portfolio- Annual return jumps to 82.7%
The Peabody Portfolio consists of 27 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996 including three 100 share purchases during the recent PFE Peak to Valley run in October, 1998.
To date, the Portfolio has purchased 4,300 PFE shares at an average price of $66.18 (only 3.5% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). 100% of the purchases are in the black. During this period, the Peabody Portfolio has averaged an annual return of 82.7%.
Total return:........................................+75.5% PFE @ 116.13
Annualized return:...............................+82.7%
% of Peabody purchases in the black... 100% (27 out of 27)
________________________________________
# PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 4,300
Average Price of Purchases:....... $66.18
Total Costs: ...............................$284,563
Total Market Value:.....................$499,388
Total Potential Profit:...................$214,775
Date............#..........Purchase
Purchased...Shares...Price
8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38
10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44
12/4/96:......200..........$41.69
12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50
12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44
12/31/96:....200..........$41.50
1/2/97:........200.........$40.94
1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38
2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69
3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88
3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81
3/31/97:........200..........$42.56
8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13
4/16/98:........200...........$97.00
4/27/98:........200...........$113.00
5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50
5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00
5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75
7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00
7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50
8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00
8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63
8/11/98..........100..........$100.00
9/01/98..........100..........$97.63
10/06/98.........100..........$94.00
10/09/98.........100..........$89.00
10/14/98.........100..........$89.50
Total:............4,300.........$66.18
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Suggested PFE Buying Strategies
The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time.
:..................$100 to $107...........Updated: 11/23/98
New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the
remainder at or near Peabody Valleys
________________________________________
Suggested PFE Selling Strategies
Selling of PFE is recommended if a major PFE or market pfundamental significantly changes.
If you need to raise capital by selling PFE, one suggested selling strategy is to set a 50% market sell order at a level 8% higher than the last Peabody Valley. After a period of one month evaluate the results of this action and consider selling the remaining 50%...once again at a level 8% higher than the latest Peabody Valley reached during that month. You should also take into account possible pfuture actions that may effect PFE trends (see below).
PFuture Actions That May Effect PFE Trends
Viagra Rx trends:..................................... Every Monday throughout 1998
Initial reports of Viagra international sales.......November, 1998
ACC/AHA Report on Viagra...........................December/January 1998
FDA Advisory Panel on Celebrex......................December 1-2,1998
FDA Approval of Celebrex...............................January - February, 1999
Launch of Celebrex..........................................First Quarter, 1999
News of Viagra adverse reactions,
drug interactions, and labeling revisions: ........Throughout 1998 and 1999
Major analyst's Upgrades/Downgrades............Throughout 1998 and 1999
ED news in the media: ................................Throughout 1998 and 1999
Approval of Viagra in Japan.. .........................First half, 1999
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Peabody V-Files
Viagra sales for the first six months on the market were $524 million, the highest recorded sales for a new pharmaceutical product during its first six months on the market.
Viagra sales in 6 months are four times higher than the combined sales of Evista and Propecia in 9 months. In fact, Trovan sales are higher than either Evista or Propecia.
...........................................$Millions
............................1Q.............2 Q........... 3Q..........Total YTD
........................... Sales....... Sales.........Sales...........Sales
Viagra..............Not on market.$411.........$141............$511
Trovan....................$42...........$ 22...........$ 41............$105
Evista....................$34............$ 15...........$ 33.............$82
Propecia.................$13...........$ 16............$24..............$53
As of 11/01/98, analysts estimate that Viagra will have 1998 sales of $0.86 billion, an 11% decline over their prior estimates. This sales level will represent the most successful launch of a pharmaceutical product in its first 9 months on the market.
............................................1998 Est...1998 Est
...........................................(Billions)....(Billions)..... Comments
Paine Webber.......................$0.950.......$0.925...... $1.9B (1999)
Gruntal.................................$0.925.......$1.000........$2.1B (1999)
Everen.................................$0.875........$1.000
Brown Brothers.....................$0.852.......$1.360..... $1.15B (1999)
Deutsche Bank ....................$0.850 ......$1.000
JP Morgan...........................$0.800........$0.800.... $1.15B (1999)
CS First Boston.....................$0.770.......$1.100.......$1.3B (1999)
Consensus...........................$0.860.......$0.965
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PFE Stock Splits
PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE usually announces a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998.
At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, the PFE CEO stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year.
Bottom line, a 3-1 PFE split announcement will most likely be announced in January, 1999 as part of the celebration of PFE' s 150 year birthday.
Useful PFE Links
-3 year PFE chart versus the Dow growth. control.bigcharts.com
-6 Month PFE Chart with Da Bollinger Bands Playing 207.95.154.130
-5 Year PFE Price Chart
news.com
-Peabody PFE Price History (1987-1998) (Updated: 9/03/98)
www3.techstocks.com
-Compare PFE with Other Stocks and Indexes
quicken.com
The Peabody Model
-The Peabody Model: History and Findings (Updated: 7/18/98)
-The Peabody Model Amendment #1: The Influence of the Dow (Updated: 10/17/98)
www3.techstocks.com
The Market Environment
-Briefing.com- Reviews current market environment
briefing.com
-World Markets
quote.yahoo.com
Investment Advice
-26 Weeks to Successful Investing- IBD
ibd.infostreet.com
- 8 easy ways to lose your shirt in stocks
usatoday.com
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