Carl,
I totally agree with your count from the small 5th wave beginning on 11/12, and realize we just completed the 3rd of 5 at today's highs. My conclusions allowed this 4th wave to go no lower than the mid 1150's, which is where wave 1 ended on the 17th as you suggest. Of course, it doesn't HAVE to go that low, and probably won't. Wave 2 was so brief, that i figured this wave 5 could draw out a bit timewise, especially with non urgent holiday trading ahead of us.
Wave 1 was roughly 35 SPX pts. off the 11/12 lows, so i expect wave 5 to be roughly that length, since wave 3 exceeded that length (50+ pts.). If the SPX is to stay under my target (1192) for this entire move off the 10/8 lows, then a run down to just under 1160 would give wave 5 of 5 of 5 plenty of room to operate. That's why I'm keen on the idea of a run to that area.
What happens after 5 of 5 of 5 completes should be something to behold. What a historic moment that will be, because, as you probably are aware, if my count is correct, that will complete the bull move... period. If '29-'42 wave 2 took 13 years, and '66-'82 wave 4 took 16 years, and what's coming is one degree larger than both of those corrections, imagine the magnitude and duration of it.
If you knew the general markets would never make another new high from the moment this wave 5 of 5 of 5 completes, what strategy would you use to attempt to reap the greatest rewards from that knowledge?
Regards,
David |
