MadDog....<2>
You also asked me if I now had changed my opinion mkt valuation of YHOO. When we first talked about it, YHOO was @140 or so. It now has reached a whopping $227. Obviously my thinking will change along the way. To answer your question - no, I don't have doubts that it will justify its valuation in the long run...but I also think that the short term plateau is close by. See my post to Dave Mansfield. And today will see a slight correction of 10-20%. After all, it was predicted to be 190 by Christmas by analysts, and $ 207 by myself (Sweetepete's competition)....I would say it is unfair to raise your expectations so far up so quickely, even if it has performed beyind anyone's imaginations. THAT would be irrational..don't you think ? I still maintain that it will be around $207 by christmas and that I should have unloaded more @227 yesterday and bought back.
Re: My guru, well, the comment was meant to be an insight into the psyche of the crowd and it has served me good over time. There can be no middle ground on this one IMO because you ask yourself this question only when faced with an extreme....its supposed to bring you back from the edge of disinvestment. When YHOO hit 222 2 days ago, I had to fight an urge to sell @205. By asking myself - would I short now ? would anyone short now ? - I managed to resist making the call and watched the stock cross 212, 215, 220 up to 222...<<meanwhile my broker went ballistic trying to contact me >>> - and it proved the point - YHOO went up another 5 points the next day ! Its once again a tool - you may use it if it works for you. Of course its situational as well. I lost a ton on TGLO !
I learned a great deal from SweetPete (this post was about learning ;). It dawned on me that patience and long term view always pays off. I also learnt that while being #1 was important, we were focussed too much on the leadership part. Changing my perception to accomodate this insight was quite an experience...it spills over to my entire life. Does it really matter who emerges as #1 ? As long as a person/stock has a steady ride, the position is totally irrelevant...what do you think ?
In the end, Nash equilibrium prevails. People do the best they can, given the information they have and given the circumstances of their situation.
Now that sounds like TA to me rather than FA. But what do *I* know, I'm just a girl ! |
