I am glad that I was able to ring this bell...the silence on this thread was deafening...TECD has gone from 36 to 25. A natural pull back, huh? I don't think so. The oft mentioned 'channel' has gotten mixed reviews at best. Noting that TECD is only 15% exposed on the 'retail' side has cushioned it against the horrible marginless 4th quarter of PC sales. CC and BBY had terrible PC quarters, not to mention the larger retailers (Costco, Walmart, ect)...and then SHVA announces horrible earnings due to bad margins and cancelled orders; moreover, they mention that that same softness has occurred at its 'second tier' distributers; IM and TECD. TECD announced that Dec sales were on the low end of estimates...and so we have to ask: What happens next? Is corporate US buying P6's? Are they shifting to NT4 as aggressively as MSFT planned? Folks, in a world where you're only as good as your last quarter (sadly) where do you expect TECD to be should they come in a little under? TECD doesn't hit the high estimate, the stock is at 20.
Yes, I know that SHVA and TECD are apple and oranges, but a frost on one may hurt the other. (Course, oranges and apples are grown in different regions so this analogy really sucks, so don't abuse me too badly.)
All I am saying is that there is MORE than a natural sell off going on here. Two days in a row market is up size, pc stocks, chip stocks, software stocks are ROARING. TECD down a 1/4, down 3/8....and don't give me the 'patience' routine gang.
I am long and concerned like never before.
Winston. |
