Armenia may Benefit from Russia's Effort to Strengthen CIS
Aram Sarkisyan, the Armenian presidential adviser on foreign
policy issues, said in an interview with the Arka news agency,
published in the Armenian newspaper "Novoye Vremya" on November
21, that Russia, Armenia, and Iran could form a "geostrategic
axis of stability." Sarkisyan said Russia was Armenia's main
strategic partner, but that Yerevan also wants to have "good
relations with all countries, especially with its closest
neighbors." Sarkisyan also suggested that Georgia could also
join the alliance, as these three countries "do not have the
internal potential for expansion, nor do they threaten the
security of other countries." Commenting on sources of regional
instability, Sarkisyan cited Israel's alliance with Turkey as a
matter of particular concern.
Armenia has for some time been appealing for stronger political
and military ties with both Russia and Iran, as a means of
providing added leverage against its hostile neighbors Azerbaijan
and Turkey. To a limited degree, it has succeeded, though
Armenia clearly seeks a deeper commitment. Armenia is a member
of the Collective Security Treaty of the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) and participates in the Unified
Antiaircraft Defense system of the CIS countries. Moreover,
Russia is supplying Armenia with weaponry. In late October,
Azerbaijani President Geidar Aliyev called on NATO to take
serious action to prevent the militarization of Armenia by
Russia. Aliyev claimed that Russia has been arming Armenia not
against Azerbaijan, but against NATO. Armenia, of course, denied
these charges and said that by making these kinds of statements,
Azerbaijan was attempting to shift attention away from the issue
of the Karabakh settlement.
Despite these denials it is undoubtedly the case that Russia is
currently Armenia's main strategic ally. Meanwhile, Moscow has
received Yerevan's previous proposals to create a formal alliance
between the two countries with only moderate enthusiasm, and it
has indicated at best a halfhearted willingness to ally with
Iran. In early November, Colonel-General Yuri Baluyevsky, chief
of the main operational department of the General Staff of the
Russia Armed Forces, said he "did not visualize [a] Russia[n]
military pact with Iran," although he conceded that "Russia must
maintain cooperation with Iran in the military-technical area."
Baluyevsky anticipates continued cooperation with Armenia in the
same area.
Like Russia, Iran has been reacting to Yerevan's diplomatic
advances with little enthusiasm. On November 5, Iran rejected
Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan's offer to mediate
between Iran and Israel. The spokesman of the Iranian Foreign
Ministry said that Oskanyan's remarks were "ill-considered and
far from the truth" and they showed "lack of information about
the Islamic Republic of Iran's principal stances about the
usurper Zionist regime." Later, the Armenian Foreign Ministry
denied that Oskanyan offered to mediate between Iran and Israel;
rather, it claimed that Armenia would "not rule out, in the event
of such an appeal, that [it] would take appropriate action."
Israel expressed its "deep gratitude" to Oskanyan for his effort.
Clearly, Yerevan has occasionally made ill considered remarks in
trying to secure a rapprochement with neighboring regional powers
– in this instance with Iran. Armenia's failed attempt to play
the role of mediator had, in fact, an adverse effect on its
relations with Iran.
Armenia's chief diplomatic goal is to secure a military alliance
with strong regional powers directed against its historical
enemies -- Azerbaijan and Turkey. It does not care if that
alliance is with Iran or Russia -- or even the United States,
were that possible -- it just wants the relationship to be strong
and sure. For now, Russia remains Armenia's strongest backer,
but apparently not strong enough for Armenia's preference. Like
Belarus, Armenia seems to want desperately to become a major
power's appendix. This time, despite the previous lukewarm
response from Russia, Armenia may get its wish. The reason?
Moscow is now in a major push, not only to strengthen the CIS,
but to hold its own federation together. To convince the
unwilling, Moscow must accept the willing.
On November 25, the 29th meeting of the Council of heads of CIS
governments opened in Moscow. In his opening speech at the
session, Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov warned against
disaffection among the members of the CIS: "We must not begin to
distance from each other or re-orient to other partners." Also
at the session, Russian Minister for Affairs of the CIS Boris
Pastukhov urged the CIS countries to coordinate their efforts to
deal with the current financial and economic crisis. Pastukhov
said: "None has any illusions left that the crisis in Russia
would not affect other countries of the CIS. A number of
countries have already been affected by the Russian crisis to
this or that extent, and heads of states realize that the peak of
the turmoil for other states is still looming ahead."
Moscow is expected to propose practical measures to help CIS
countries to cope with the crisis situation. One of the measures
Moscow itself can take to strengthen its ties with some of
republics of the former Soviet Union is to establish much closer
administrative ties with those countries, which, like Armenia,
are looking for a strong military ally to counterbalance their
regional enemies. As it attempts to convince empire-averse
former Soviet Republics to join Russia for the common economic,
political, and military good, Moscow may try to deepen its
politico-military ties to Armenia, which, like Belarus and
Yugoslavia would actually eagerly welcome such an arrangement.
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