Elliot, Most MALL holders are thinking UBID should open at $70 or higher, already MALL's close today implies UBID at $50s. I even hear $100 for UBID, why not, EBAY is $200! If it wasn't for TGLO and EWBX, no one would have had that kind of expectation. There're half a dozen internet IPOs coming next week or the week after, and everyone of them will do a TGLO, I suppose.
TGLO hit a high of 97 on the first day, it's now 40. EWBX hit a high of 85, it's now 41. Another internet issue, CMPL, opened last week at 20 (priced at $10), saw a high of 24, closed today at 15 3/4. I hear a lot about what UBID will open at, but not what will UBID close at on the first day, the second day, a week after. I kinda doubt too many people will want to buy and hold UBID in the 50s. MALL and UBID will trade in tandem by a simple formula, the price movement of one will influence the other, not just MALL following UBID, although UBID will lead in the beginning. Again because of the linear relationship between the two, shorting MALL after the IPO is equivalent to shorting UBID. Many would have loved to short TGLO in the 90s and EWBX in the 80s but couldn't do so. With UBID, there's a surrogate in MALL.
Now before you guys jumped all over me again because I entered my short 5 mins before the close, I just want to say that I don't anticipate holding them for more than 30 mins on Friday. I trust that the first 15 mins on Friday will present opportunities for me to cover at a profit. It it's a loss, that's OK too. No guts no glory.
Regards,
Tom |
