Do you have a number reserved for Ralphie baby? He's sure earned one this year! --ng-
Some might argue he's not as bad as Cramer, but I don't know.
washingtonpost.com
While Cohen has remained relatively consistent in her views, other market
analysts have danced back and forth during the year, especially those like
Ralph J. Acampora, Prudential Securities' director of technical analysis,
who is supposed to specialize in market timing rather than long-term
trends.
"People say, 'It sounds like one day you say one thing and another day you
say another thing,' but that's what they pay me to do: call significant turns.
And we've had some very significant turns in a very short time," Acampora
said yesterday.
At the beginning of the year, longtime bull Acampora appeared on the
television show "Wall Street Week With Louis Rukeyser" and predicted --
correctly -- that the first half of the year would see higher stock prices and
the second half would be "difficult." He forecast lower interest rates, a
deflation scare, and earnings worries.
But while Acampora had the themes right, his numbers were wrong. He
forecast that the Dow industrials would hit a high of 8600 and a low of
6000, with a close of 7300. Soon the market soared and Acampora
boosted his range. With the market already bouncing around the 9000
level, Acampora was asked whether he was looking for a Dow average of
10,000. "Absolutely," he said on April 27 on CNBC. He said a correction
would mean, "worst case," a Dow of about 8200.
On Aug. 4 4, with the broader stock market in broad retreat and the Dow
off its July 17 peak, Acampora abruptly did an about-face. He forecast a
20 percent drop in the benchmark average, to 7400. That forecast came
true in one month. Once it did, Acampora warned on Oct. 8 that the Dow
could fall even further, to as low as 6500.
"I was right for about one hour," Acampora said yesterday. The market
dipped below 7400, turned around and never stopped. Three days later
the Fed cut interest rates, and Acampora changed direction, too.
Acampora makes no apologies, saying he predicted the "cyclical bear
market" but remains the same "raging bull" he's been for 3 1/2 years.
"Never fight the trend. Never," he said yesterday. "This market wants to
recover."
And he stands by his numbers. "Everyone likes to put a number on my
butt," he said. "Now I'm telling people officially -- officially -- that the odds
are better than 50-50 that the Dow hits 10,000 before the end of the
year." |
