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Gold/Mining/Energy : Tusk Energy (TKE)

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To: grayhairs who wrote (1005)	11/27/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: Richard Saunders	Read Replies (2) of 1207

Grayhairs - your comment, "You see it across the board with loads of really fine juniors trading at <50% of NAV."...... Don't you think it will be "interesting" to see how some of the net asset values look in the 1998 Annual Reports that will begin to appear next April & May compared to the 1997 published Net Asset Values? I've nothing concrete to back this up but I'd hunch that many n.a.v.'s last year were done using $18.50 - $20us WTI. Ceiling tests are going to (imo....) result in many previously proven oil reserves all of a sudden not being economic if current prices are plugged into the engineering models. Sure, possibly majorly overweight gas producers will escape some of the write-down pain seeing as the frothiness in pricing continues however your comment about many jrs. trading at more than 50% of n.a.v. may be using the rearview mirror (ie. last year's assumptions). Some companies have already started to lance some of the paper valuations and writeoffs are being announced. Yesterday's $19.8mil writedown by Cavell #reply-6580550 is a good example (imo.....). Are you building the forward-think into your statements or are we still looking backwards? Just a tho't and no intent to slag......... appreciate views, etc. you/others add to the thread.

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