Hi All, (********* help ***********)
I have been a INTC holder for 2 years, and I am thinking of selling all of it. I will explain my reasoning a bit later, and I would welcome anyone pointing out why selling INTC would be a bad idea.
I want sell INTC, because I am fearing AMD's K7 and K6-3.
1)The new K7 is to be released early next year. From everything that I have read, it is superior in architecture and performance over the Katmai processor. It has gained support from Taiwanese chipset manufactures, and it will have a 200Mhz system bus.
2)The soon to be released K6-3 will perform to the same level as P-II.
I understand that AMD had a very tough transition from .35 micron to .25 micron. AMD is claiming that it doesn't foresee such a problem for transitionning from .25 to .22/.18.
I do believe that K7 is a very well designed processor. But I don't know if AMD can transition from to .25 to .22/.18 successfully. If AMD can make a successful transition early next year, then AMD would be able to compete against Intel from the low end to high end processors. Thus, Xeon's 70%-80% profit margin days maybe numbered.
While Merced is scheduled for release in 2000, but 64 bit processor may not contribute to profit significantly until 2001. Intel is also trying to penetrate the embedded market with its i960 and StrongARM processors, but that's low profit margin business. Intel is loaded with cash, but it's hard to see any business that Intel can buy that has a 50% margin.
If the transition from .25 to .22/.18 is the only road block keeping AMD from fully combating against Intel, I am not willing to put my money on AMD failing.
Please, someone explain to me why I should think otherwise.
Thank you,
Khan |
