fyi --
bus week chart indicates that online sales as a % of all us sales of the following products is:
food <1%
music 1%
books 2%
airline tix 2+%
software 4+%
porn 10%
Now which industry is bezos likely to enter next??? software can't be nearly as exciting ... in any case bulls will claim, see how high amzn's stock is already and there's so much penetration to go in the marketplace, bears will undoubtedly notice that amzn, with 60-70% or so of the book sales (and sliding) of 2% (and growing) is miniscule as is the 20-50% of music sales, video sales not even on the radar screens ... when all's said and done, amzn has poured out tons of $$$ to get up and running and has loaded up on debt plans to run at least 3 more years of losses all before the big guns have begun playing seriously ... amzn's early growth success, certainly succeeded in attracting the attention of deep pocketed competition, sort of like the undersized heavy weight working himself into a sweating frenzy, come charging into the ring, having spent his best adrenaline rush and energy, while the larger pugilist is just slowly warming up, waiting until the real fight begins to let loose ...
i've zero clue what amzn's stock will do in the next 1-3 months while this year's holiday shopping mania re; internuts continues, but i'll give you a hint about wht will happen next holiday season, once all major booksellers music sellers, video sellers, toy stores, electronic stors, department stores (easier to exchange that palmpilot at the local walmart, staples, etc. or thru the mail with amzn???) and every shop bot, portal wallet function at aol, xcit, msn, yahoo etc. have had a year to rev up their "enter your credit card once, and shop at 2500 merchants, we'll find the cheapest price" functions
btw, among the inane arguments trotted out by TMF over the past 6 months that seem to have fallen by the wayside, are:
1. amzn is technologically superior to bks.com
2. the sense of community built up at amzn
3. the touch, the feel, the experience.
4. bots will never matter, web shoppers are not price sensitive (oh, so that's why you buy junglee)
5. switching costs are too high -- who'd ever want to bother to re-enter their credit card number for each new merchant that you bought an item from.
6. brick and mortar companies just don't get it -- tell that to toys r us, the gap, bks.com, et al
7. amzn's web savvy mgt. team can't be beat (aol-bertelesmann, msn, yahoo, xcit)
Are therer other bullish arguments for those insane among us who actually still try to invest according to a company's long term prospects??? |
