Hi stock bull:
First, I am not a T.A. analyst and I don't believe T.A. at all. As for your DELL's base building period analysis, I have a couple of questions. The first one is why DELL is base building while most of other tech stocks (internet or not) charging ahead? DELL did not even have decent pre-earnings run up this time. How can you explain this? Second, in the past base building, they are mostly related to the general market condition. When market tanked, DELL sat and built its bases, a very healthy behaviour. However, this time, I believe it is not a base building. It is rather hang-in-there thanks to the market strength. Also, several people in this thread mentioned that November is not a strong month for DELL. I find that is hardly a truth. Last November (1997), DELL tanked in sync with the market when Asian crisis hit. A year before (1996), DELL charged ahead from 70 to 100s (four splits ago) very rapidly even with Alan Greenspan's original "irrational exuberance" comment. That's when I first got in DELL and that's all I remember. If you look and 2-5 year chart, it is very hard to see those movement because all the prices are split adjusted. The price movement from 70 to 100 just look like from 4.5 to 7, hardly a supercharging. But it was, then. Thanks. B.J. |
