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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications
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To: Valueman who wrote (4916)11/30/1998 8:59:00 AM
From: Jeff Vayda  Read Replies (1) of 10852
 
Vman:

FWIW: Dont feel too worried about the Delta III. One thing you can feel good about is that it has been a long time in the US rocket industry since there has been two consecutive launch failures.
Most people do not appreciate what a failure investigation entails.
I have been through more that I care to remember, they are exhaustive if nothing else. The whole rocket and its support systems are typically scrubbed.

The Delta III failure was identified as a software problem. (IMO it was a bone headed oversight) Seems they choose not to model the environment of constructive interference of the air-lit solids. As a result, they ran out of hydraulics trying to correct. You can be assured that these past months have seen bunches of computer time on that environment.

As an evolved rocket design, most of the bugs have been worked out. Every flight has things that dont work right. If the bug that bites you causes an unsuccessful launch or deployment, then it rightly gets much more press.

Delta III will be a success.

Moving onto Atlas - that is a little more suspect. It is a new design and is to incorporate Russian engines. (ugh!) Not that they cant make a great engine, it just seems integration of the industry cultures gives ample opportunity for things to get dropped.

Do you think the rise in G* helps or hurts the finance position?
IMO, it helps from a collateral stand point. Again, I look for two Soyuz launches then a finance announcement. (and hopefully sat buy announcement- build them and launch 'em. Overwhelm the launch failures with shear numbers of sats! Got a free ride on Zenit...)

Jeff Vayda
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