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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34601)	11/30/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) of 94695

David, >>>>> The greatest probability i see for this 5th wave is that it terminates within a point or 2 of 1192 SPX. There's probably a 25 percent chance that we could go 4 to 7 points past that number, and a 10 percent chance that we go 8 to 10 points past. Anything beyond 10 points past, and we could be looking at the alternate scenario <<<<<< As you know that my analysis is more based on time than price targets. When you mention that anything beyond 10 points over 1192 would basicly negate your positon and would go to an alternate scenario, I feel that it is being called too tight. Just on pure statistics, being able to get within 1% is excellant, and within 2% is good and 3% is fair. I have some experience in statistics and that is the normal rule of thumb that I use. David, 12 points fudge factor on the SPX is only 1%. I guess it is human nature that we look to be perfect all the time, unfortunatley that is a STATISTICAL IMPOSSIBILITY. I feel that your prediction of 1192 is a great call, but to limit it with less than a 1% fudge factor is doing yourself an injustice, considering what you are basing it from. Great call. Seeya

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