Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: John Gault who wrote (34611)	11/30/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) of 94695

How does over production end when producing countries are reliant on the money generated by oil? John, This has been one of the main factors that I look at in predicting that we'll be seeing debt default in 1999 and 2000 (due to Y2K induced credit crunch). As commodity prices continue to fall, debtor nation's ability to service their debt declines. As a response the Fed lowers interest rates in order to boost the liquidity of money center banks with exposure to this debt. There were able to temporarily put the cork back in the "genie bottle", but when he eventually gets free, there will be hell to pay. Btw, I sincerely hope that my negative forecast does not come to pass. I would love to think that my hedging during 1999 is merely an opportunity cost allowing me hop back on the "long bandwagon" in 2000. Regards, Ron

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