Derleao
First of all, in every country of the world there is a long term need of cement. Even Switzerland will need cement if they are going to build the NEAT as they promised to the EU to cut a deal with them. The question is if there is enough supply and if not, would it be possible to make money by producing and supplying it?
Basically we share the same opinion. The Philippines will need a lot of cement to develop their country. The difference lays in the interpretation:
YOU THINK:
Fenway will produce and supply it and will make big profits out of it.
I BELIEVE:
Fenway will not be able to start production because:
a) the environmental issues
b) the indigenous population who clearly stated that they will fight the project
c) they will not be able to put the financing together
Why do I think that they will not be able to finance their project? Because every financial analyst who checks the project will find out that Fenway's financial projections are unrealistic. In fact, the financing is unimportant because they won't get over the a) + b) hurdles anyway. That might be the reason why Fenway has to pay their financial advisors such a high retainer. I am sure nobody in the corporate finance field would spend one minute on this project unless a) + b) has successfully been answered. (which is not the case yet!)
Further, if the Reuter's article I mentioned is correct, doesn't it undermine the whole project?
I am not sure if I understood your comment in regard to press releases correct, but do you want to tell me, that Fenway is sophisticated enough to finalise a $300 million plus project, but is not sophisticated enough to make correct statements?
In general I could agree with your comment on fairness but I think there is only one side and not two as you mentioned. This one side being the shareholders and I think it is very unfair (and against the VSE rules!) to them just to hipe the merits and the (unrealistc and wrongly calculated) profit potential as done by Fenway's management and their promoters.
In regard to your recommendation to go short on Fenway I have to admit that I was thinking about it, but unfortunately I told the people already that I am not invested in Fenway and compared to Fenway's management, I do not make wrong statements.
Hope you did not misunderstood me, because I would never dare to call you greedy. I just wanted to tell you, that if I were you I would take the gain and run, but I can not give you any advise.
Finally, it is very obvious that I do not share your optimism.
Crusader |
